Month’s Theme: A significant opportunity to open a long position in the midst of a decline. There’s a key price level that’s highlighted that we’ll likely break through.
Behavior Around the High: Multiple false tops. The highest high is likely on the 24th.
Behavior Around the Low: A significant drop to meet the low and a trough on a one-month scale.
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An opportunity to open a long position on the 1st. I would close that in the midst of sideways rotation later on the 1st or on the 2nd.
An opportunity to open 50% of a long position on the 3rd. If we’re at a similar low on the 6th I would add to that position.
An opportunity to open a long position in the midst of a notable decline on the 3rd.
A move to the upside on the cusp of the 9th/10th offers an opportunity to open a short position. I would close that on the 13th.
Overview
An opportunity to open a long position on the 1st. I would close that in the midst of sideways rotation later in the day or on the 2nd. The 3rd also offers an opportunity to open a long position in the midst of a decline toward the end of the day. On the 6th, you could add to or open a long position. There’s then a big move out of a decline from the bottom of a range to the top of a range. On the 7th, there’s a prominent move higher on a multi-day scale followed by a full retracement back down. We’ll then have some price swings. On the 8th, we’ll have a big move to the upside early in the day and price swings. On the 9th, we’ll have sideways rotation and a big move to the upside on the cusp of the 9th/10th. There’s an opportunity to open a short position after that move to the upside. We’ll break through resistance creating a new high, stay above it briefly, and then break back down shortly thereafter. We’ll have mostly bearish price behavior on the 10th. We’ll open lower on the 13th. I would close the short position on the 13th. There’s a failed attempt to break through key resistance on the 14th followed by a decline through key support on a multi-day scale back into a trough toward the end of the day. There’s a big move out of a trough on the 14th.
On the 15th, there’s a period of volatility that ends with a fast, sudden move higher. On the 16th, there’s a move higher out of a trough early in the day into a highest high toward the end of the day on the cusp of the 16th/17th. There’s a decline on the 17th that ends with a fast, sudden move higher either on the 17th or the 20th.
On the 20th, we’ll have multiple failed attempts to break through key resistance and a rally out of a trough midday. That rally takes us into a peak midday of the 21st. By the 22nd, we’re declining off of a peak or crest down to and through support on a multi-day scale. We do a U-shaped reversal below that support level and then come back up to reuse it as support. The market is closed on the 23rd and there’s a half day on the 24th.
Over the weekend, there’s a big move higher to a highest high on the 27th. That rally ends on the 28th with a decline in the early afternoon. There’s possibly a gap up to the same high on the 29th. There may also be a notable fake out/shake out. On the 30th, there’s a trough midday that we’ll have a big move out of. We may see the highest high again.
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