Month’s Theme: Notably bearish with a decline that increases with momentum throughout the month. We’ll bounce along support before breaking down through more support levels.
Behavior Around the High: Sideways rotation establishing support and then a prominent move higher into the high.
Behavior Around the Low: Sideways rotation along key support on a one-year scale.
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An opportunity to open a short position for an overnight swing trade on the 1st.
An opportunity to open a long position in the midst of sideways rotation along key support on the 3rd. I would close that after a move higher on the 4th.
An opportunity to open a short position on the 4th for a multi-day swing trade. I would close that on the 6th.
A peak or crest on the 10th/11th offers an opportunity to open a short position. I would close that after a decline on the 12th/13th.
A move higher on the 20th offers an opportunity to open a short position. That position could be closed on the 22nd.
Overview
On the 1st, there’s a rally along a diagonal trend line that ends with a fast, sudden move higher and then a breakdown through that diagonal trend line with increasing volatility on the way down. The fast, sudden move higher offers an opportunity to open a short position for an overnight swing trade. On the 2nd, there’s an important resistance level on a multi-day scale that’s highlighted. We’ll also have two crests or two peaks that form. In the late morning there should be a trough that forms and a significant move to the upside out of it. That move to the upside offers an opportunity to close the short position. On the 3rd/4th we’ll likely have the month’s high and a key resistance level. There are as many as four local lows on the 3rd. There’s an opportunity to open a long position in the midst of sideways rotation along key support. On the 4th, there’s an opportunity to close the long position after a move higher. There’s also an opportunity to open a short position on the 4th for a multi-day swing trade. On the 5th, there’s a rally into key resistance followed by a decline with consecutively lower spikes up on the way down. On the 6th, there’s a decline off of a minor peak to and through support to meet a second support and then we’ll rotate sideways. There’s someone speaking in the afternoon. There’s a lowest low thus far somewhere between the 6th and 7th. If there’s a decline into a low on the 7th you could open a long position for a day trade. There’s a rally from the 7th into the 8th.
There’s a decline off of a peak or crest on the 8th through multiple support levels. We’ll decline into the 9th where we’ll have price swings and another sharp drop around the cusp of the 9th/10th into another lowest low. There’s a peak or crest that we’ll decline from on the 10th/11th. That offers an opportunity to open a short position. We’ll decline into a lowest low around the 12th/13th that offers an opportunity to close the short position. There’s a low on the 14th.
On the 15th, there’s a big move to the upside out of the previous low. On the 16th, there’s a fake out/shake out and a breakout into a prominent peak toward the end of the day. We’ll decline from that moving into the 17th into a trough where we’ll revisit a support level toward the end of the day. We’ll move to the upside out of that trough and then decline again on the 18th. We’ll attempt to establish support on the 19th. There’s a fast, sudden move higher on the 20th. That move higher offers an opportunity to open a short position. There’s a sideways-fluctuating rally on the 21st that precedes a decline on the cusp of the 21st/22nd.
We’ll move into another low on the 22nd. You could close the short position opened on the 20th at that low. We’ll have a rally out of that low that increases with momentum moving forward in the day on the 23rd where we’ll successfully turn resistance into new support. There’s erratic behavior back and forth through the same price level on the 24th. There’s a bit of a rally on the 25th and bumping sideways along resistance. That turns into a rally on the 26th where we’ll form another high. On the 27th, there’s a move higher through resistance and then a full retracement of that move back down. We’ll have sideways fluidity along key support on the 28th. There’s a peak or crest toward the end of the day on the 29th. That rally is halted and we’ll create a prominent trough for the month on the 30th or on the cusp of the 30th/31st.
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